Japan Economic Outlook Global downturn will drag Japan into recession The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the... 5th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP revisions unlikely to change things for the Bank The national accounts data provided two pieces of good news this week, with revisions to the historical series and stronger-than-expected third-quarter growth leaving GDP higher than expected. While... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Global downturn taking its toll on exports With weaker growth overseas and the drag from the stronger dollar now pushing exports lower, the resilience of consumption is the only thing keeping the economy from falling into recession. 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The slowdown in hiring in November did not prevent a decline in the unemployment rate, as the labour force contracted. The Bank of Canada will be more encouraged by the fall in the 3-month annualised... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Tweaking our forecast for Switzerland With recent data suggesting that the Swiss economy is holding up better than we had anticipated, we now think GDP will be unchanged in 2023 compared to this year. That would still imply a weaker... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The better-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in October only partly reversed the falls in output in the previous few months. And surveys suggest that the sector fared much... 2nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK sounds dovish as inflation eases and growth slows A string of weak activity data, a sharp drop in inflation and dovish comments from the central bank support our view that the Bank of Korea’s tightening cycle is coming to an end soon. 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show industrial downturn easing supply shortages The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production is contracting, albeit with some signs of a slowdown in the pace of contraction in Europe. Product shortages have diminished... 1st December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since the early stages of the pandemic, from 50.2, leaves it at a level consistent with a stagnation in broader... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2022) The weaker-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure, of 0.4% q/q, highlights that the weakening global economy and higher interest rates are bringing the recent period of strong growth to an end... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, to 52.6, but underlying activity in the sector is likely to remain subdued as the combination of sustained power cuts and fiscal and monetary... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
