Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market

New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers

President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia?

In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the...

14th July 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs

The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as...

11th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s reform push, OPEC+ decision, Saudi real estate

The delay to Egypt’s IMF review is not too concerning for the country’s balance of payments, but it underscores the difficulty of successfully achieving the goals of the privatisation drive. Elsewhere...

10th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume...

7th July 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running

The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will...

7th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation

We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the...

4th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan

The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think...

27th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil prices fall sharply, platinum to follow suit

The risk premium in oil markets has largely subsided after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leaving bearish fundamentals in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, a surge in speculative activity appears...

27th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Taking stock of the ‘12-Day War'

The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically and, even more quickly, subsided over the past week with the agreement of a ceasefire that has, so far, held. The focus now is on whether Iran pursues...

26th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jun. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict...

26th June 2025 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and...

25th June 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the...

24th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook

Although instability in the Middle East could easily push oil prices into triple-digit territory, as things stand, the oil market looks set to remain well-supplied and so we expect bearish...

23rd June 2025 · 22 mins read