Russia’s crude oil exports account for 5 per cent of global consumption, or about 4.5mn barrels per day, according to Kieran Tompkins at Capital Economics. Ever since the start of the war in Ukraine, its crude exports have been concentrated among just a few trading partners: 73 per cent goes to India and China by sea, another 24 per cent goes to China by pipeline, and the rest goes to various European countries and Turkey. If tariffs make that oil unsellable, that would not necessarily shock the market. Crude exports from Russia are a bit less than the 5.5mn b/d in spare production capacity held by the rest of Opec+, said Tompkins.