UK Economics Update Close to the summit, but rates to stay at the peak for a year Today’s 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates from 5.00% to 5.25% may be followed by another hike in September to a peak of 5.50%. But rates appear close to the summit. Even so, the Bank’s new... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Food inflation surge muddies the policymaking waters The recent surge in food price inflation means the RBI’s policy decision on Thursday 10 th August is now less of a formality than it had appeared. On balance, we still think that the MPC will keep the... 2nd August 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 23) 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control is effectively over The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise above the 0.5% ceiling – which it says it is retaining – to a new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0%. With signs mounting of a... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB definitely maybe close to the peak The ECB’s decision to raise rates by 25bp today and Christine Lagarde’s guidance that another hike was a “decisive maybe” will not have surprised anybody. On balance, we think the Bank will probably... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2023) As was universally expected, the ECB raised interest rates by a further 25bp today and indicated that further hikes are possible but not certain. At the press conference we expect the main message to... 27th July 2023 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike and peak in sight We think the Bank of England will revert to raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 5.00% to 5.25%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 3rd August rather than repeating June’s 50bps hike... 27th July 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tightening cycle done As everyone expected, the Fed increased its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 5.25% and 5.50% but, while officials are possibly still eyeing one... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the... 26th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to hike again, Spain goes to the polls Data released this week support our view that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q2. Meanwhile, France’s government presented a plan to reduce its budget deficit next year but its plans are likely to... 21st July 2023 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
