RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government benefitting from higher inflation for now We previously argued that political pressure is one reason to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. However, we suspect the government's stance on inflation has become more ambiguous. While... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will call time on loose policy next year The Bank of Japan still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. But with inflation proving stickier than expected, we expect the Bank to lift its policy rate in January and have... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds and maintains hawkish rhetoric The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold today at 8.25% and continued to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, suggesting that it is in no rush to begin... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Interest rates are at their peak The surprise decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today probably means that rates are already at their peak. We think rates will stay at this peak of 5.25% for... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Turkey’s central bank delivered a 500bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting, to 30.00%, providing further encouragement about policymakers’ commitment to tackling the inflation problem. A lot more... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Sep. 2023) 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s hold suggests rates have peaked The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a surprise. Although the Bank left the door open for further hikes, we think rates are now at their peak. And with inflation set to fall further... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sep. 2023) The SNB’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 1.75% was a big surprise, although it left the door open for further hikes. We do not expect any further increases in the policy rate as we expect... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed doubles down on 'higher for longer' The Fed doubled down on its mantra that interest rates will remain higher for longer, with its updated projections suggesting that the economy will enjoy the softest of soft landings and core... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, at today’s meeting and with the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation pressures to keep building, we think further... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
