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Fed projects one cut this year, but notes inflation progress

The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the remaining eight look for two cuts. Accordingly, we wouldn’t necessarily describe today’s announcement as hawkish, particularly with the statement including an assessment that “in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the [FOMC’s] 2% inflation objective”.

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