Bank of Canada Watch 25bp hike coming with chance of another in July As GDP growth and CPI inflation have both surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts, we now judge that it will raise interest rates next week rather than wait until July. 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Further tightening unlikely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its policy rate by 25bps, to 2.0%, today but given the relatively benign outlook for inflation we think this marks the end of the tightening cycle. 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeps eyes firmly focussed on inflation The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked interest rates by 50bp, to 8.25%, today on the back of policymakers’ growing concerns about the inflationary impact of persistent power cuts. For now, we... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Hawkish BoK, but early cuts still possible The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%) for a third consecutive meeting, and pushed back against the possibility of early interest rate cuts. However, with inflation falling back... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN tightens further as inflation threats mount The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp, to 18.50%, reaffirmed that officials continue to focus on tackling high and rising inflation at the expense of supporting the... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB kicks off its monetary easing cycle Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut the interest rate on its one-day deposit tender at today’s meeting, from 18% to 17%, and this is likely to be followed by further cuts in the coming months, with the... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: 25bp hike, but tightening cycle not yet over The Bank of Israel (BoI) delivered another 25bp interest rate hike, to 4.75%, at today’s meeting and did not offer any guidance as to whether this would be the last in the cycle. On balance, we think... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico to keep rates high for longer than most expect Mexico’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, bringing the tightening cycle to an end. But with inflation unlikely to return to target until late-2024, policy will... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
