Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 100bp this year The ECB’s decision to update its guidance suggests that an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June is very likely. Christine Lagarde would understandably not commit to a path of rate cuts, but... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the BoE cut rates earlier and faster than the Fed? Even if the US Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged for longer than we expect, our forecast that inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US suggests this won’t prevent the Bank of... 11th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Mar. 19-20) The minutes of the March meeting suggest that there is still scope for at least a couple of interest rate cuts later this year and confirm that the Fed is likely to soon slow the pace of its balance... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank leaves the door open for a June rate cut Governor Tiff Macklem sounded relatively dovish in the Bank of Canada’s press conference today, leaving the door open to an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ remains on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t drop any hints as to when it might pivot to looser policy at its meeting today. However, as inflation risks recede, we still expect the Bank to start cutting... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI policy pivot creeping closer The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected but the more interesting aspect was the slight dialling down of its hawkish rhetoric. With inflation grinding down towards the central... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain... 4th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS likely to loosen policy later than most in Asia Singapore was an outlier within Asia in terms of how high inflation spiked and it still has higher core inflation than most other economies in the region. The core rate is likely to remain above... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly External position looking healthy, RBI to stand pat Data released this week show that India's current account deficit narrowed at the end of last year and, while it may widen over the coming months, we think it will remain well within the 2% of GDP... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeping up the inflation fight The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Policy pivot creeping closer We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in... 27th March 2024 · 6 mins read
