Asia Economics Update BoK set to deliver rate cuts from Q4 The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fifth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. However, comments by the central bank governor at the press... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish politics, Swiss industrial production This week saw Spain take a tentative step towards forming a new government, but there is a long way to go, and another general election may yet be needed. We also learnt this week that Swiss... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hold, but cuts likely by year-end The Bank of Korea (BoK) has left interest rates on hold since January and looks almost certain to leave monetary policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. But with inflation falling back... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy remains in a rut Earlier this week, the RBNZ signalled that rates would need to remain at their current restrictive level until early-2025. However, we think the Bank will shift gears well before then, given the... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts unlikely before 2024 The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting and, although the economy weakened markedly in Q2 and inflation is nearly back to target... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: macro stability risks now crystalising The decision by Russia’s central bank to increase its policy rate by 350bp, to 12.00%, at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the challenges that policymakers are now facing to maintain... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI maintains hawkish tone amid food price surge The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt hikes, but still work to do The Central Bank of Egypt unexpectedly hiked interest rates late yesterday, by 100bp to 19.25%, but it still needs to follow through with another devaluation as well as further rate hikes in order to... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
