Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A June pause doesn’t mean the RBA is done hiking A string of soft April activity and inflation figures, alongside survey data showing firms dialling back their capex plans, will give the RBA room to leave rates on hold in June. However, we suspect... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (April 2026) The fall in household spending in April will give the RBA pause for thought, raising risks to our view that it will deliver one final 25bp hike in Q3. 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (April 2026) With price pressures somewhat contained for now, the RBA is all but certain to pause its tightening cycle in June. However, if we’re right that the rise in underlying inflation has further to run, the... 27th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (April 2026) The strong pickup in Australia’s jobless rate in April makes it all but certain that the Bank will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to... 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (May 2026) Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, we think it will tighten policy a bit further still. 19th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes not a major threat to housing market Some commentators have been arguing that the tax changes announced in last week’s Budget will end the 30-year super cycle in housing. By contrast, we’re not convinced that the attractiveness of... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Live chance of a rate hike at RBA’s June meeting Business surveys suggest that inflationary pressures continue to gain momentum in Australia. Although some of the increase in firms’ pricing intentions likely reflects noise, the RBA will still be... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) Although wage growth eased a touch in Q1, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures could soon bubble up again. As a result, we still think the RBA has more work to do. 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget leaves RBA to do the heavy lifting on inflation The Australian government’s 2026/27 Budget does little to move the needle on fiscal policy. Although Commonwealth coffers will benefit from a windfall driven by higher commodity prices, much of this... 12th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow regardless of Budget While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will unveil large savings in the upcoming Budget, most of those will probably be used to finance higher spending. The key point though is... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher energy prices will lift building costs On their own, the recent surge in crude oil prices could lift construction costs by around 4%. However, the bigger picture is that in contrast to the previous energy shock in 2022, conditions in... 7th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hikes again, but sees risks as more two-sided The RBA’s decision to hike rates again at its meeting today came as little surprise. In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock argued that with policy settings mildly restrictive again... 5th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech stocks versus oil, bonds versus central banks Tech stocks have continued to power ahead despite renewed concerns around the war, but we don’t think they’re completely immune to it. Meanwhile, central bank inaction could be a threat to bond... 5th May 2026 · 6 mins read
