Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Capacity pressures to persist despite housing weakness This week’s data will likely have reinforced the RBA’s view that tighter financial conditions are weighing on the housing market. But we doubt that housing wealth effects will push consumption much... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing downturn has further to run Australian house prices continued to decline in June, and we think they won’t bottom out until early next year. Although much ink has been spilt about recent housing tax changes, they have yet to have... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (June 2026) The minutes of the June meeting confirmed that the Board’s decision to leave rates on hold was unanimous. Broadly speaking, however, the minutes revealed that the hold was a hawkish one, with the... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still set to hike, housing tax changes pass Australia’s latest activity and labour market data continue to point to softer momentum, but the CPI figures suggest that underlying inflation pressures have not yet been tamed. Accordingly, we still... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending & Labour Market (May 26) The May household spending and labour market data don’t provide a strong signal about the RBA’s next move. 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (May 2026) The continued acceleration in underlying inflation in May means that the RBA can’t declare victory in the war on inflation just yet. Accordingly, we continue to believe it will deliver one final 25bp... 24th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ on track to hike, One Nation gains ground The 0.8% q/q rise in New Zealand's GDP in Q1 was flattered by residual seasonality and overstated the economy's underlying momentum. Even so, with the RBNZ increasingly concerned about inflation risks... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2026) The Reserve Bank of Australia retained policy optionality when it kept rates unchanged at its meeting today. Our base case remains that the Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 16th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A cooling housing market but the RBA’s job isn’t done Australian consumers remain deeply pessimistic, particularly about the housing market, with house price expectations falling to a three-year low and auction clearance rates continuing to weaken. Even... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold fire for now, but leave its options open The RBA will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its meeting next Tuesday. With the economy showing signs of cooling, the Bank will likely signal a cautious approach to any further policy adjustment... 9th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA alert to inflation risks even as growth softens The Australian economy slowed noticeably in Q1. Although private demand appeared resilient, thanks largely to the data-centre construction boom, the weakness in household consumption remains a cause... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2026) The weakness in the Q1 GDP print belies the fact that domestic demand was still growing at a healthy clip. Even so, it increasingly looks like the RBA won’t be in a rush to resume its tightening cycle... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market correction is underway Australian house prices fell for a second straight month in May, and leading indicators suggest that the decline has further to run. However, with inflationary pressures still running hot, the housing... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
