Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% in early-2026 While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Sep. 2025) While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2025) Although the RBA won’t pay much heed to the pickup in headline inflation last month, the strength in core inflation will give it pause for thought. We expect the Bank to only cut rates twice more this... 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ will cut further to revive the ailing economy With New Zealand’s real GDP having plunged last quarter, the output gap is now at its most negative level since the Global Financial Crisis. The excess capacity in the economy will exert downward... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Springtime in the Antipodes New business surveys suggest that economic momentum in Australia will remain solid through the second half of the year. However, we would caution that these surveys have recently overstated the... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumer revival to temper RBA rate-cut outlook The Australian economy bounced back strongly last quarter, buoyed by a sharp rise in consumer spending. With households' real incomes growing strongly and housing wealth increasing in tandem, we... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (Jul. 25) With the Australian consumer springing back into action, the case for aggressive policy easing is becoming weaker. 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q2 2025) Activity rebounded strongly in Q2, and for all the right reasons. The pickup in domestic demand raises the risks that the RBA won’t loosen policy as aggressively as we’re predicting. 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rebound continues to gather steam Australian house prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months in August. With leading indicators suggesting further gains are on the cards, we’re inclined to revise up our forecast for house prices... 1st September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s independence not under threat While New Zealand’s Prime Minister has indicated a desire for more aggressive policy loosening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the institutional framework limits the government’s ability to... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
