Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Divining in different directions The chances that interest rates in Australia will rise a bit earlier than we expect have grown this week while it has become more likely that interest rates in New Zealand will be unchanged for longer... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ says rate hikes are a more distant prospect While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.75% at today’s policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand strongly suggested that the first interest rate hike is further away than it... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hinting that rates may rise later While leaving interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9 th August, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably acknowledge the recent softening in activity by revising down the GDP... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) Although the labour market remains fairly healthy and employment is still within the RBNZ’s measures of the “maximum sustainable level”, the rise in the unemployment rate in the second quarter coupled... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy forewarning of 2% GDP growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy suggests that the economy lost further momentum in June and that GDP may now be growing by just 2.0% a year. Most worrying are the signs that the slump in business... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Life without the booms The end of Australia’s housing boom and New Zealand’s migration boom mean that economic growth in both countries will probably fall short of expectations over the next couple of years. Australia may... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stronger growth failing to boost inflation The fall in underlying inflation in the second quarter in Australia revealed this week has made us more confident in our non-consensus call that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s 2-3%... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The small strengthening in underlying price pressures in the second quarter is unlikely to make the RBNZ any keener to raise interest rates when it is becoming clearer that economic growth is slowing... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ acknowledging the growing downside risks The changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy statement after it left interest rates at 1.75% today are more cosmetic than substantive. But the Bank has acknowledged the growing... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
