Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Getting banks to lend again We doubt that the phasing-out of caps on interest-only loans will provide much support to the housing market as there’s still a large imbalance between supply and demand. And the government won’t... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) While GDP growth softened in the third quarter early signs suggest growth may be a little firmer in Q4 so we doubt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be too concerned. But we expect GDP growth to... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA not ready to cut The financial markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate cut by the RBA next year following the release of weak GDP data this week. But while we expect GDP growth to slow further next year... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
