Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices. (Q1) The easing in headline inflation in Q1 increases the pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut rates at their next meeting in May. And with weak growth set to keep a lid on inflation, we think they will cut... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labor’s Budget alternative not so stimulatory either This week both the government and the opposition laid out their fiscal plans if they were to win the next election, with both sides promising significant income tax cuts. But given the negative... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Balanced budget & tumbling yields The rapid improvement in the budget deficit provides the Coalition government with some scope to announce additional tax cuts or higher spending while maintaining its forecast of budget surpluses over... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut rates this year The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4 2018) We think that the slowdown in annual growth in the fourth quarter will set the tone for growth to remain subdued throughout 2019. But as long as the labour market remains tight and underlying... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Losing confidence The continued decline in business confidence in February suggests that the falls in business investment will persist into 2019. And the deterioration in consumer confidence may motivate households to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gets more realistic by taking a neutral stance We think the explicit neutral stance adopted by the RBNZ in today’s policy meeting is appropriate as we suspect that the economy will not gain enough momentum to support interest rate hikes until 2021... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
