Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Oct.) After probably slowing in the third quarter, the bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in October suggests that GDP growth started the fourth quarter on a stronger footing. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Effect of easing in LVR restrictions only modest Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that it intends to ease existing loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions from the start of next year should provide a modest boost to housing... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Sep.) The decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in September suggests that the easing in GDP growth over the past year continued in the third quarter. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gives the new government the thumbs up More interesting than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having now left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a year was the Bank’s verdict on the impact of the new government. It believes that... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing and the economy The stagnation in house prices in Australia in recent months is a big deal as it means housing won’t support the economy by as much as in recent years. The plunge in the number of home sales will... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Jobs mandate to move the goalposts not change the game The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9th November and by adopting a more cautious tone in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement it... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) As the surges in employment and wages in the third quarter are a little bit of a statistical mirage, we are not convinced that the resulting strengthening in the dollar to US$0.69 will be sustained... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Challenging the tightening trend Australia and New Zealand will probably stand out from the crowd next year as interest rates stay at their respective record lows of 1.50% and 1.75% while rates are raised in some other advanced... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
