Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ acknowledging the growing downside risks The changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy statement after it left interest rates at 1.75% today are more cosmetic than substantive. But the Bank has acknowledged the growing... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Apr.) The lacklustre rise in our NZAP in April suggests that after slowing in the first quarter the economy failed to regain much momentum in the second. We expect growth will continue to slow from here. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A $100 oil price would not be a disaster We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) Despite a bounce back in March, our New Zealand Activity Proxy is still pointing to a modest easing in GDP growth over the first quarter as a whole. And we expect growth will continue to struggle this... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
