Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has house price inflation reached its peak? House prices in Australia are rising at their fastest pace since 2010 and the recent surge in auction clearance rates suggests that a further pick-up is on the cards. However, most other leading... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets are overestimating the chance of rate hikes next year While there is a consensus among economists and financial markets alike that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep rates on hold at 1.75% when it meets next Thursday 23 rd March, we believe that... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2016) While GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was weaker than most had expected, this was largely the result of temporary factors and as such we expect growth in New Zealand to bounce back early... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ not planning to raise rates until late 2019 While leaving interest rates on hold at 1.75% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. But since we largely agree with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rate rises a long way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will undoubtedly keep rates on hold at 1.75% at its meeting on Thursday 9 th February, but in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement we suspect it will revise up... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in both headline and core CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is enough to prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates further, but it’s not enough to prompt it to raise interest rates... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
