RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) GDP growth is by no means falling off a cliff, but the end of the migration and housing booms have already caused a marked slowdown and they probably mean growth will ease to just 2.0% next year... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A $100 oil price would not be a disaster We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) Despite a bounce back in March, our New Zealand Activity Proxy is still pointing to a modest easing in GDP growth over the first quarter as a whole. And we expect growth will continue to struggle this... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget preview: Electioneering outdoes fiscal restraint While the income tax cuts that the Australian Treasurer is planning to announce in Tuesday’s Federal Budget will provide a small boost to the economy over the next couple of years, we doubt they will... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates on hold throughout 2018 and 2019 The only thing we expect to change at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand‘s monetary policy meeting on Thursday 10 th May is the Governor, as interest rates will almost certainly stay on hold at 1.75% at... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation outlook remains subdued Inflationary pressures picked up in the first quarter in Australia, with underlying inflation rising to the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target for the first time in two years. In contrast, core inflation... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What next for the Aussie and kiwi dollars? The recent weakening in the Australian and New Zealand dollars probably has a bit further to go and the big risks still lie on the downside. That said, a shift in interest rate differentials next year... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The labour market continued to strengthen in the first quarter, with employment posting another decent rise and the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in almost a decade. And although wage... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
