RBNZ Watch RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter of 2020. Even so, the data has generally improved by more than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s wiggle room won’t last The improvement in the labour market in December alongside the surge in retail sales in November should be enough to keep the RBA on the sidelines in February. But we think weak economic activity will... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) The rebound in GDP growth in New Zealand in the third quarter is unlikely to be sustained as soft consumer and business confidence limit the pick-up in growth. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Stable financial system allows RBNZ to cut rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave mortgage lending restrictions unchanged and tighten capital requirements means that lending and house prices are unlikely to surge in 2020. As such... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
