Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rise by 7% in 2021 The improvement in the labour market, lower borrowing costs and a turnaround in leading indicators all suggest that the housing downturn will soon come to an end. We now expect house prices across the... 22nd September 2020 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q2) New Zealand’s GDP fell by 12.2% q/q in Q2 but while the second lockdown should weigh on the recovery in Q3 we still expect growth to rebound by more than 10% in Q3. 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lower spending by National would be a drag Jacinda Ardern’s incumbent Labour party looks set to win a solid victory at New Zealand’s upcoming election. That might keep business confidence subdued, but it probably wouldn’t be as much of a drag... 9th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Would negative rates work in New Zealand? Negative interest rates would not necessarily weaken the exchange rate, but they would almost certainly reduce bank lending rates. While they could result in lower lending margins, New Zealand’s banks... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Q2 shows that the government’s generous wage subsidy protected many jobs but we suspect that as that comes to an end, unemployment may rise somewhat Q3. 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
