Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think the future is brighter for Kiwi than Aussie While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi... 25th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to keep surprising to the upside Australia’s unemployment rate has fallen much faster than most had anticipated. And with the share of underemployed workers nearly back at pre-virus levels, the risk of widespread job losses after the... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in underlying inflation in Q4 is consistent with our view that the RBNZ will tighten policy in the years ahead. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Doubts about vaccination strategy, soaring vacancies Australian scientists are proposing a halt in the rollout of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which forms the bulk of available vaccine doses in Australia, because its lower effectiveness compared to... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Earlier vaccine rollout as fresh lockdowns proliferate Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed this week that vaccinations are now likely to start in February rather than in March. And based on the government’s ambitious timeline we think the elderly and... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound The 7.9% q/q recovery in consumption in Australia in Q3 still left it 6.8% below pre-virus levels. Even excluding Victoria, consumption only recovered to around 4.5% below pre-virus levels. And since... 22nd December 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The extraordinary rebound in New Zealand’s GDP was probably driven, in part, by the release of pent-up demand, but we still expect output to rise further in the months ahead. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
