RBNZ Watch Negative rates on the horizon The RBNZ will want to wait to assess the impact of the virus outbreak on inflation and the labour market before cutting rates further. As such, we think it will not announce any further stimulus... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in New Zealand in Q2 largely predates the impact of Covid-19 on the New Zealand economy. We expect the unemployment rate to surge in Q2 as the lockdown... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) The rise in headline inflation from 1.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4 will be of cold comfort to the RBNZ given the virus outbreak may cause inflation to slow below 1% before long. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian States taking different approaches A nationwide lockdown has not been declared in Australia as we had expected, largely because daily new cases have declined. However, a number of the biggest states have taken it upon them selves to... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4) The decline in GDP growth in New Zealand in the fourth quarter shows that the economy was struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak which will surely drag the New Zealand economy into recession in... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
