Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it left rates on hold today, but the decision demonstrates that the Bank is taking a cautious approach in light of the current lockdown. Assuming restrictions can be... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls The outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia has continued to worsen. More states are now in lockdown and sentiment is deteriorating. That poses a downside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast. However the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating and the Bank’s mandates for both inflation and the labour market are now fulfilled. We therefore expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps at its upcoming... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market While the unemployment rate is now back at its pre-virus low, a range of indicators suggest that there is still some slack in the labour market. We think the unemployment rate may eventually fall to 3... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% all but confirms our forecast that the RBNZ will hike rates at its August meeting. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) We had already expected the RBNZ to hike rates in August and the surge in inflation in Q2 only bolsters our confidence in that forecast. 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand- End of asset purchases signals rates will rise soon The RBNZ today sent a hawkish signal by announcing the end of its bond purchases. While we currently expect the Bank to start hiking rates in May next year, the risk is that it will happen earlier. 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening creeping closer We doubt the RBNZ will adjust any policy settings when it meets next Wednesday 14 th July. However, as the New Zealand economy continues to recover faster than the RBNZ expects we think the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 7 mins read
