Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Would negative rates work in New Zealand? Negative interest rates would not necessarily weaken the exchange rate, but they would almost certainly reduce bank lending rates. While they could result in lower lending margins, New Zealand’s banks... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Q2 shows that the government’s generous wage subsidy protected many jobs but we suspect that as that comes to an end, unemployment may rise somewhat Q3. 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget update to reveal severe deterioration The government’s Budget update on Thursday is set to reveal a marked deterioration in the fiscal accounts, largely due to huge fiscal support measures. Most of that spending is set to expire in... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The plunge in headline inflation to 1.5% in Q2 is just the start of the weakness in inflation which is why we expect the RBNZ to launch negative rates early next year. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook More stimulus needed as recovery set to slow The renewed virus outbreak in Victoria underlines that the recent strength of the recovery won’t be maintained. We expect output to remain below pre-virus levels until the end of next year. While the... 15th July 2020 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Victoria’s lockdown will slow recovery Melbourne's six-week lockdown will of course prevent a noticeable rebound in economic activity in Victoria in the third quarter. Cases elsewhere remain low and the closure of the border between New... 9th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Renewed outbreaks will slow recovery in activity A fresh outbreak in Victoria has brought weekly cases close to their previous peak. That resulted in many Victorians being placed back into lockdown and caused panic buying of essentials to restart... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
