Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Earlier vaccine rollout as fresh lockdowns proliferate Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed this week that vaccinations are now likely to start in February rather than in March. And based on the government’s ambitious timeline we think the elderly and... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound The 7.9% q/q recovery in consumption in Australia in Q3 still left it 6.8% below pre-virus levels. Even excluding Victoria, consumption only recovered to around 4.5% below pre-virus levels. And since... 22nd December 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The extraordinary rebound in New Zealand’s GDP was probably driven, in part, by the release of pent-up demand, but we still expect output to rise further in the months ahead. 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Vaccine to reduce need for further monetary stimulus Australia and New Zealand will benefit less than other advanced economies from a vaccine due to their success in containing the virus. Even so, we’ve lifted our 2021 GDP growth forecasts a bit and no... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist Some analysts have expressed optimism that the signing of the RCEP will help ease trade tensions between Australia and China, but we doubt the agreement will do much to calm the waters. Meanwhile, the... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still likely to implement negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to implement a funding for lending programme in December should provide some further stimulus on its own and is another step towards implementing... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China threat to trade is growing Exports to China haven't fallen as much as those to other parts of the word despite mounting trade tensions. China has so far kept disruptions to trade to smaller export categories. But with reports... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
