US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB cuts rates but signals inability to do more July’s ECB interest rate cut did little to alter the euro-zone’s bleak economic outlook, particularly as the Bank indicated that it is unlikely to pursue any bolder unconventional measures for now. 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values? Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Greece finance itself after a euro-zone exit? We have long argued that it may be in the best interests of Greece to leave the euro-zone. And while some commentators have suggested that Greece would benefit from waiting until it can fully cover... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (May/Jun.) The latest data on labour market conditions and the manufacturing sector in the euro-zone confirm an overall picture of economic weakness. This provides a difficult backdrop against which European... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Which debts would be redenominated after euro break-up? The improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone following last week’s EU summit is, in our view, likely to prove short-lived. Indeed, we still expect the resolution to the euro-zone crisis to... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Sensible changes, but no big cure Against a background of low expectations, the changes agreed at the EU Summit to tackle several issues which threatened to inhibit the effectiveness of short-term support measures came as a pleasant... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are not yet having the desired effect. While money supply growth is picking up, bank lending to the private sector remains... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) Euro-zone CPI inflation was unchanged in June, but this does not alter our view that it will fall sharply over the coming months and the ECB will cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A rate cut but no more With the euro-zone’s debt crisis intensifying again and the economic downturn deepening and broadening, we think that the ECB will opt to cut interest rates by 25bps in July. But the Bank seems... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun) June’s EC survey mirrors the picture from other timely indicators lately that the euro-zone is in a deepening and broadening recession. This further underlines the need for policymakers to come up... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Basic divisions will hinder Summit progress Together, the radical plans that are up for discussion at this week’s Summit could be the key to the euro-zone’s survival. But with Germany opposed to providing more funds without central budget... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
