Europe Economics Weekly France's recovery to be snail-paced France’s economy hasn’t picked up much steam since it stagnated in Q1. Although the outlook for the second half of the year is a little brighter, the recovery will remain pretty weak. The resulting... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Peripheral markets move into the spotlight We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lending scheme would have serious limitations The ECB seems increasingly likely to unveil a new scheme to boost lending to the private sector, perhaps as soon as its June policy meeting. We would welcome such a scheme, but its effectiveness will... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 14) May’s PMIs suggested that the euro-zone recovery remains lacklustre and highlighted the continued divergence between France and Germany. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EP elections to show rising reform fatigue Euro-sceptic parties are set to perform strongly at elections for the European Parliament. Although the result may have little impact on the institution itself, it risks undermining national... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) March’s euro-zone trade data confirm that the strong level of the euro continues to act as a significant headwind for euro-zone exporters. This will furnish the ECB with yet another reason to take... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The disappointingly modest rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 will have done little to reduce the risk of deflation in the region and the stark divergence between the major economies only adds to... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that industry has made a weak start to 2014, underscoring the fragility of the recovery both in the sector and in the euro-zone economy as a... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should a slowdown in euro-zone production worry logistics investors? Despite the slowdown in industrial production, the outlook for euro-zone logistics property remains positive. In particular, the improved outlook for consumers, as well as the growing penetration of e... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will be the ECB's next move? While President Draghi made clear last week that the ECB will loosen policy in June, he gave very few hints about just what action the Bank will take. Small cuts in the main refinancing and deposit... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates and maybe more next month The ECB signalled very strongly at today’s press conference that policy will be loosened next month. A small cut in the main refinancing rate seems like the least that the Bank could do and is... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much momentum is there in euro-zone property yields? Absent another shock, over the next few quarters, further falls in the peripheral property yields are likely. However, with deflation lurking in the background and yields already low, core yields are... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s retail sales data suggested that the euro-zone economic recovery may finally be broadening out to include households, while the final PMIs for April pointed to a stronger pace of recovery at... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Beefed-up stress tests will be no quick fix The euro-zone’s upcoming bank stress tests are likely to be more effective than the region’s earlier attempts. But the euro-zone financial system will heal only slowly, remaining a drag on the... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
