Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The slight rise in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in November clearly does nothing to alter our view that the recession has intensified in Q4. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Commercial property prices on their last legs? In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 12) Q3’s GDP data confirmed that, despite continued growth in Germany and France, the euro-zone as a whole is now officially in recession. We expect the recession to deepen markedly in the coming quarters... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core economies managed before the euro The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals on Q3 growth The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) & Flash CPI (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in September, coupled with the high level of CPI inflation, does not bode well for consumer spending in the latter part of 2012. 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s deterioration in the euro-zone EC business and consumer surveys supported other evidence that the economy started Q4 on a very weak note. The fall in the headline Economic Sentiment... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a euro break-up be worse than the Lehmans crisis? The economic and financial effects of one or two small economies leaving the euro-zone would not necessarily be major, but the initial impact of a larger collapse would be rather more serious... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys continued to paint a pretty dismal picture of growth prospects in the region as a whole and confirmed that Germany is also suffering. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
