Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Oct.) October’s euro-zone trade data confirmed that the region continues to run a large trade surplus by historical standards. But the recent fall in exports is another reason to believe that the consensus... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow progress towards banking union The European Council finally managed to reach some important compromises last week, allowing progress to be made towards setting up an EU-wide bank supervisor in the form of the ECB. But, presumably... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Final CPI (Nov.) & Emp. (Q3) Despite rising for a second month running in December, the euro-zone composite PMI remained well below the “no-change” level, consistent with a deepening recession in Q4. 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct. 12) October’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further strong evidence that the recession in the single currency area has deepened in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB solved the crisis? Recent actions by euro-zone policymakers and the ECB in particular have prompted some commentators to conclude that the region has turned a corner. But we still expect the crisis to deepen again soon... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB too gloomy? Not likely. Suggestions that last week’s downgrades to the ECB’s economic projections have left it too gloomy look wide of the mark. Against a background of weak global activity, continued austerity and high and... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in the third quarter brought little cause for optimism regarding the outlook for the region. With timelier indicators giving a universally negative picture, the... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession to deepen in Q4 Recent hard data have confirmed that euro-zone GDP fell for a second quarter running in Q3 and more timely indicators suggest that the recession deepened in the fourth quarter. September’s drop in... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey does not alter our view that the consensus forecast for the euro-zone economy broadly to stagnate in 2013 is far too optimistic. A deep recession still looks... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
