Europe Economics Update Banks still reducing their exposures to the periphery The core euro-zone banks continued to reduce their claims on the region’s peripheral economies in Q2. And despite recent hopes that the worst of the euro-zone debt crisis may now be over, we expect... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Calls for secession are a blow to fiscal union hopes Calls for independence from the richest regions of Spain, Belgium and Italy threaten to blow big holes in the public finances of the three economies. And more fundamentally, growing public aversion to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s multiplying woes The IMF’s analysis suggesting that “fiscal multipliers” are rather bigger than many governments have been assuming does not tell us much that we did not already know about the euro-zone. It’s pretty... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that GDP is unlikely to have contracted as sharply as the more downbeat business surveys suggest in Q3 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB plays its cards close to its chest President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s determination to preserve the single currency at today’s interest rate press conference, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding how the... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic outlook continues to darken The unveiling of the ECB’s new bond purchase programme may have provided markets with a lift, but further declines in business and consumer sentiment suggest that the overall eurozone economic outlook... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Providing little more clarity on OMTs Having been lauded as being “as mighty as the Fed” after unleashing a policy “bazooka” in the form of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme in September, the ECB is unlikely to announce... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The latest monetary data provide no encouragement about the outlook for the eurozone. Lending to the private sector has continued to fall and the boost to banks’ lending to governments generated by... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) September’s European Commission business and consumer survey served as another warning that the euro-zone economy is sinking into a deep recession and underlined the need for broader policy support... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Further signs of fiscal slippage suggest that peripheral euro-zone governments will fall short of their ambitious budget deficit targets for this year. 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s rise in euro-zone industrial production has not altered our view that the economy as a whole is now in a technical recession. 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the bazooka now in place? The German Court’s decision to allow the ESM to be ratified, together with the ECB’s earlier promise to meet ESM bond purchases with unlimited purchases of its own, suggests that a substantial... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the game really changed? While the very positive response to the ECB’s plans to undertake “Outright Monetary Transactions” (OMTs) is not entirely without foundation, it at least looks over the top. On close inspection, the... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
