Europe Economics Update Positive reaction to ECB could prove short-lived The confirmation that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds looks encouraging at face value. But the details reveal that the Bank has not upped its policy... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q2 revealed that last quarter’s contraction was down to a decline in domestic spending. With the timelier data consistent with sharper declines in activity ahead... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone back in recession Recent indicators have supported the view that the euro-zone is now firmly in recession. GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 after stagnating in Q1 and falling by 0.3% in Q4. And the business surveys so far point... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s weaker than expected EC business and consumer surveys provided further signs that the euro-zone is in a broad-based recession. This will add to the pressure on the ECB to come up with more... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) August’s flash euro-zone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) did nothing to challenge the notion that the single currency area is now firmly in recession. 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF/ECB support for Spain: some unanswered questions The ECB’s statement last week that it might buy Spanish bonds if the government first applies for EFSF support has left many questions unanswered, which we address in this Update. In short, it seems... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Export slowdown continues Recent data from the external sector have confirmed that export growth has continued to slow. Indeed, the annual growth rate of export values fell to its lowest level in two and a half years in May... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul. 12) Recent fiscal data suggest that a large number of peripheral and core economies are struggling to make inroads into their budget deficits. And with the growth outlook continuing to deteriorate, many... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) With euro-zone inflation unchanged at 2.4% in July and unemployment at a record high in June, households’ incomes are under growing downward pressure. 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece about to move back into the spotlight? The formation of a ‘pro bail-out’ government may have recently shifted the markets’ spotlight away from Greece. But the Troika’s visit to Athens, which begins tomorrow, looks set to prompt renewed... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Finland be the catalyst for a euro-zone break up? Finland’s continued hardline stance on the provision of support to the peripheral economies increases the risk that the euro-zone will not implement the measures needed to maintain the existing... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects worsen as crisis broadens The outlook for the European economy has deteriorated as the euro-zone debt crisis has broadened to envelop bigger countries like Spain. Despite the growing talk of the need for growth across the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s increase in euro-zone industrial production does not alter our view that the sector will continue to act as a drag on overall GDP growth. 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro-zone exit affect households? Leaving the euro-zone would clearly have adverse consequences for households in the exiting country as higher import prices hit spending power. But they could reasonably believe that those costs would... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
