Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and EMs: key questions answered We held a series of client meetings in the US last week which focused on the implications of Trump’s victory in the US election and the spillovers to EMs. This Update answers some of the most frequent... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jump in negotiated wage growth largely due to one-offs The jump in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q3, to a record high of 5.4%, was mostly due to one-off payments in Germany. Wage growth elsewhere was little changed. With headline inflation around 2%... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025 The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are... 20th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Which sectors will benefit most from AI? Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. 19th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Underlying price pressures fading gradually Services inflation in the euro-zone has been stuck around 4% for the past 12 months, but there are good reasons to expect it to decline significantly next year. We think that core inflation will... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update European gas at the mercy of LNG European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried by stagnating GDP? Today’s GDP release, which confirmed that the economy has hardly grown at all since March, is a blow for the government given its pledge to secure the “highest sustained growth in the G7”. We still... 15th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
