UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 25) UK commercial property is on the road to recovery and lending to the sector has been strong in recent months. But with yields set to remain stable, the rise in capital values will be modest over the... 18th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Downward trend in EZ services inflation will continue May’s steep decline in euro-zone services inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter. But looking through that effect, services inflation is on a downward trend that we expect to continue. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why UK housing demand can recover despite high mortgage rates Two developments in borrower and lending behaviour mean that housing activity and prices can be higher than before the pandemic for any given mortgage rate. That’s why we expect housing transactions... 18th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2025) While the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp this morning and suggested there was a reasonable chance of a further cut this year, the outlook is uncertain and underlying economic conditions aren’t... 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2025) With services inflation still elevated at 4.7%, the small fall in CPI inflation from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May (CE 3.2%, consensus 3.4%) won’t prompt the Bank of England to deviate from its recent... 18th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Denmark to pharmaceutical downturn? Denmark’s exceptional growth in recent years has been driven by one sector (pharmaceuticals) and one firm within that sector (Novo Nordisk). Its output has declined this year, raising questions about... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Iran conflict: the macro, geopolitical and oil market fallout The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions... 16th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel’s strikes on Iran put the ball in OPEC+’s court From an oil market perspective, the key risk from the latest flare-up in the Middle East is that the nature of retaliatory action disrupts oil supply and trade in the region. OPEC+ will be the key... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: End of tariff front-running to weigh on Q2 GDP Data published this week suggest that the boost to the euro-zone economy from exporters front-running US tariffs came to an end at the start of the second quarter. Next week, we expect central banks... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Closing UK commercial property SDLT ‘loophole’ will weigh on capital values The Deputy Prime Minister has urged the Chancellor to close the commercial property stamp duty ‘loophole’, which could lead to an average increase in tax on property transactions of 2.0 to 2.5%-pts... 13th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BOE Watch: Risks shifting towards UK rates being cut below 3.50% The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.25% at its meeting on Thursday 19th June and will keep its options open for the subsequent meeting in August. But the recent falls... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
