Europe Economics Update Portuguese economy stumbles as political tensions resurge The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production was probably down to the unusually severe winter weather and does little to alter the view that the sector remains the key driver behind the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A weak end to 2010 On the face of it, recent data suggest that the euro-zone is on track to expand at a pretty healthy pace in Q4. But we suspect that the disruption caused by the bad weather will mean that Q4’s growth... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal remains on the frontline After a month of respite, the surge in Portuguese ten year government bond yields to new euro-era highs has reignited fears that Portugal may still need outside support. Even if Portugal isn’t forced... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank debt plans won’t solve Ireland’s fiscal problems Speculation is growing that the next Irish Government will attempt to restructure some of the nationalised banks’ senior debt. But such a move, while no doubt popular with taxpayers, would do little... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal position remains deeply worrying On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s sharp fall in German industrial production is not as worrying as it seems. Although GDP growth in Q4 will not be as strong as we had previously anticipated, owing to bad weather, it still... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Investment case for the Italian retail market remains weak Italy’s historic position as one of the euro-zone’s most expensive retail markets might suggest that the recent stability of Italian retail yields, while yields in other euro-zone markets have fallen... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rental downturn has further to run The latest macro indicators for Spain paint a weak picture of industrial occupier demand. Unfortunately, our view that the economy will tip back into recession this year suggests that high levels of... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The Grand Bargain - bazooka or popgun? Peripheral euro-zone bond yields fell further last week in apparent anticipation of the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy measures. But the markets’ optimism raises the danger that the package falls... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its finger off the trigger The lack of a further step-up in the ECB’s anti-inflation rhetoric today supports our view that the Bank is unlikely to tighten policy in the near future. Nonetheless, its generally hawkish stance... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Emerging European office rental value growth prospects mixed Over the next few years, office markets in Warsaw, Moscow and Istanbul look set to continue outperforming other Emerging European capitals. Indeed, brighter GDP and employment growth prospects suggest... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland's bail-out under threat? Ireland’s next Government will push for better terms on its existing bail-out package, but it will enter discussions in a weak bargaining position. Even if it does gain major concessions there is a... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising inflation unnerves the ECB The further rise in euro-zone CPI inflation at the start of 2011 will have done little to ease the ECB’s fears that price pressures in the region are building. Nonetheless, inflation remains far lower... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grand bargain will be no cheap way out of the crisis Expectations are growing that euro-zone leaders will soon agree to a series of new measures - collectively labelled the “grand bargain” - to bolster the policies already in place to deal with the... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. (Dec.), Ger. Unemp. & E-Z Manu PMI (Jan.) The latest euro-zone data provide encouraging signs that the economic recovery is filtering through to the labour market and that the industrial sector is still expanding strongly. But large... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
