Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss industry not out of the woods July’s pick-up in the Swiss manufacturing PMI was an encouraging sign for the industrial sector, as is the Swiss National Bank’s continued intervention to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc... 3rd August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update NAMA unlikely to solve Ireland’s bank problems The Irish Government’s plans to set up a “bad bank” should eventually help to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the size of banks’ losses. But the sheer scale of the problems in the banking sector... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much slack is there in the euro-zone? The damaging effects of the recession and financial crisis have almost certainly hit the euro-zone’s productive potential, suggesting that conventional estimates of spare capacity exaggerate the... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB sticking to its guns The ECB looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its August policy meeting and is very unlikely to announce any new measures to stimulate the economy. The Bank is biding its time for now... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2009Q2 RICS survey points to stabilising investment markets The latest global property survey from the RICS, released earlier this week, adds to the mounting, but tentative, evidence that investor demand for European commercial property could be stabilising... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak lending to restrain investment market recovery Today’s bank lending survey from the ECB, suggests that there is little imminent prospect of an end to the tightening in credit availability and lending criteria for euro-zone businesses. For property... 29th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Decline in bond spreads may not go much further The recent decline in the spread between German and other euro-zone government bond yields is an encouraging sign that rising fiscal deficits in the region are unlikely to lead peripheral governments’... 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest euro-zone money figures revealed that lending growth continues to slow. Of course, other things, equal, the ECB’s recent 12-month liquidity injection should help to boost bank lending in... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone yields stabilise in Q2, but unlikely to have peaked Recent data show yields stabilised in most euro-zone office and retail markets in 2009Q2. While there are reasons to believe this may be the peak for yields, we are sceptical. Investor demand has... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong euro to add to near-term deflationary pressures The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s budget plan unlikely to comfort markets In its blueprint for the budget law (DPEF in Italian) – the Italian Government reiterated its commitment to fiscal consolidation. Because of Italy’s huge public debt, this is a formidable challenge... 20th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Euro-zone economic and property risk In the current uncertain environment, any upturn in commercial property investment flows is likely to centre on Europe’s largest, most transparent markets. Yet investors will also be looking for... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish housing market downturn far from over The latest housing market data show that the residential property market downturn is continuing to gather pace. With most valuation measures still suggesting that house prices remain well above their... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Trailing behind (Q3 2009) On the whole, signs of recovery have been less convincing in Europe than elsewhere. A relatively cautious policy stance and the delayed effects of the credit crunch suggest that the euro-zone, in... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone commercial property yields still have some way to rise (Q2 2009) Our forecasts for euro-zone commercial property markets have not been altered significantly from those we released in March. (See European Commercial Property Focus, “Euro-zone capital values to fall... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values will fall furthest in Emerging European markets (Q2 2009) The commercial property correction is already well advanced but we think it has further to run. Indeed, in non-euro-zone Western markets we ultimately expect capital values to fall by between 40% and... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
