Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why has Swiss commercial property been relatively resilient? To date, capital values in Switzerland have held up better than in most other European markets. This seems consistent with the fact that Swiss property did not become significantly overvalued during... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB still hesitant to pull out all the stops Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch capital values unlikely to fall as sharp as RICS survey suggests The recent RICS Global Commercial Property Survey suggests that, within Europe, the Netherlands will see the sharpest falls in capital values over the next few months. With property yields already at... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery remains a distant prospect (May 09) Recent upturns in business and consumer surveys are not yet robust enough to suggest that recovery is imminent, either in developed or emerging non-euro Europe. At best they suggest a slower rate of... 26th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals for French retail property are still relatively strong According to Agents’ reports, prime retail rental values have yet to fall in France. While this is far from unique within the euro-zone, recent consumer confidence and retail sales data show the... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation in Ireland - a warning sign for the euro-zone The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German consumer confidence not as weak as it looks Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Lessons from the Nordic financial crises of the 1990s The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the... 20th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update First signs of improving investment markets in Western Europe? The latest RICS snapshot of global property markets offered some tentative hope that the pace of the correction in Western Europe might soon begin to moderate as improving investor demand helps to put... 19th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Latest GDP data do not alter commercial property outlook There was nothing in the latest euro-zone GDP releases to change materially our commercial property forecasts. If anything, however, the figures raised most concerns about the German property market... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
