Europe Commercial Property Update Recession to take a larger toll on rental values across the euro-zone The rapid deterioration in the euro-zone economic outlook over the past three or four months has left our existing rental value forecasts looking too optimistic. Indeed, taking the euro-zone as a... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another step towards zero, but still no plan for QE With the euro-zone recession deepening, the ECB is almost certain to deliver the 50bp interest rate cut that President Trichet signalled last month. What’s more, we expect hints of further cuts to... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic downturn hits the Spanish public finances The latest news on the Spanish public finances shows that the hard economic landing is certainly taking its toll on the Government’s coffers. What’s more, it looks increasingly likely that a... 24th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone risk-free rates: are German bund yields the right measure? In our analysis of euro-zone commercial property markets, we base our analysis of valuations on a comparison between property yields and the yield on a 10-year German bund, regardless of whether that... 19th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe concerns likely to intensify Concerns over Western banks’ exposure to Emerging Europe look likely to intensify as the news from the region continues to deteriorate. Both the euro and the Swedish krona could suffer further as a... 18th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European Commission talking tough on SGP The European Commission is expected to launch official procedures against France, Spain, Greece and Ireland tomorrow for their breach of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Each country will surely... 17th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Southern European economies still set to fare the worst GDP data for Q4 showed the German economy contracting more sharply than that of any other euro-zone country. But while Germany is clearly suffering a deep recession, there are still good reasons to... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rates heading towards zero The recent run of dreadful news from Sweden has forced the Riksbank to rip up its previous interest rate forecasts and cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.0%. We now expect the economic recession to... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swiss bank losses point to severe recession The record loss reported by UBS yesterday provides further support for our long-held view that the Swiss economy will suffer heavily from its reliance on the financial services sector. This suggests... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss bank losses point to severe recession The record loss reported by UBS yesterday provides further support for our long-held view that the Swiss economy will suffer heavily from its reliance on the financial services sector. This suggests... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rates heading towards zero The recent run of dreadful news from Sweden has forced the Riksbank to rip up its previous interest rate forecasts and cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.0%. We now expect the economic recession to... 11th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower borrowing rates won't kick-start the economy The recent falls in borrowing rates for euro-zone households and firms suggest that last year’s interest rate reductions by the ECB are already filtering through to the wider economy. While this is... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB pauses, but rates still heading towards zero Although the ECB left interest rates on hold at 2% as expected this month, it hinted clearly that rates would fall by a further 50bp next month. What’s more, President Trichet’s dovish tone supported... 5th February 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Industrial slump intensifies The recession in the euro-zone industrial sector has become even more severe. Production dropped by a further 1.6% m/m in November, leaving the annual growth rate at a record low of -7.7%. What’s more... 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB worryingly cautious President Trichet’s continued insistence that the next “important” monetary policy meeting will not be until March has more or less ruled out an interest rate cut this month. We still think that weak... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone lagging behind on support for banks After the UK Government’s latest announcement of additional measures to support banks, policy in the euro-zone is lagging behind again. We hope that extra support will be announced in time, but the... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
