Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4) Q4’s Swedish GDP figures brought the strongest evidence yet that the problems in the euro-zone are taking their toll on Europe’s healthiest economies. We continue to think that the Riksbank will lower... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) For now at least, Portugal, Italy and Ireland all appear to be meeting their budget deficit targets. But the Spanish deficit narrowed by much less than expected in 2011 and further slippage appears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too early to sound the all clear for the Dublin office market The strong increase in take-up in the Dublin office market in 2011 is not as encouraging as it first seems. For one thing, survey evidence and labour market data suggest that the strength of... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German CPI inflation reflected a rise in energy inflation, which is unlikely to be sustained. But for now, relatively high inflation is one reason to expect consumer spending to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will German consumer optimism cause a spending revival? The recent rise in German consumer confidence looks very encouraging at face value. But with wage and employment growth already slowing, we doubt that it will be sustained. And in the meantime, fears... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer survey echoed other indicators in pointing to a slight improvement in sentiment in the euro-zone. But there are few signs of the strong economic growth needed to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans are too long term After forcing yet more austerity on Greece in return for the new rescue package agreed last week, some European leaders finally appeared to adopt a more positive focus, by presenting “A Plan for... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still in a "debt trap" Greece’s bail-out reduces the risk of an imminent default, but a closer look at the economic and fiscal projections that the package is based on adds to evidence that the deal is a fudge. The only way... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European outperformance fading 2011 was a relatively strong year for Emerging European commercial property markets. But falls in yields and increases in rents became smaller and less widespread in the final quarter of the year. As... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP Breakdown (Q4) The detailed German GDP release for Q4 revealed that the 0.2% quarterly contraction reflected falls in both exports and consumer spending. While survey data point to a slight improvement in Q1, we... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in the German Ifo index adds to evidence that the economy might avoid falling into recession in Q1, but this still looks set to be a tough year. 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone commercial property recovery hopes dashed by PMIs This morning’s “flash” release of euro-zone PMI data poured cold water on hopes that Q4’s quarterly economic contraction would be a one-off. Indeed, it looks as though the euro-zone is now in a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s fall in the euro-zone PMI puts a bit of a dent in hopes that Q4’s economic contraction will prove to be a one off. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek rescue deal has shallow foundations The new rescue deal for Greece should buy the euro-zone a bit of time. But we think that the package is based on unrealistic economic assumptions and will be no more successful than the first deal... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is this recovery the real deal? The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
