Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Europe inevitably lag behind? Hopes that Europe might weather the global economic storm relatively well have been shattered as the region has followed the US into an extremely severe recession. Sadly, a reliance on exports will... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: Taylor rule points to much bigger stimulus needed The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falls in Spanish rental values are not just a temporary phase Dublin aside, prime commercial property rental values have fallen further in Barcelona and Madrid than in any other major euro-zone city. That seems consistent with the dramatic rise in Spanish... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting job losses increase the pain in Spain The Spanish unemployment rate rose at breakneck speed in Q1, suggesting that household spending is set to continue to plunge this year. Accordingly, we still think that the consensus forecast of a 2.9... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property equities support relative optimism on France & Netherlands Real estate equity markets currently appear to be anticipating that commercial property capital values will fare worse in Germany and Italy this year than in France and the Netherlands. Those broad... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how serious is the threat of a euro-zone default? With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro... 23rd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deteriorating fiscal position won't trigger a default The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany making only slow progress on bank support The German Government’s plans for further measures to support the banking sector might sound broadly encouraging, particularly as banks there have so far not suffered as much as those elsewhere. But... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden likely to join the unconventional club soon The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden likely to join the unconventional club soon The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Resilience of German property yields at odds with the macro outlook To date, German property yields have proved remarkably resilient to the forces pushing property yields sharply higher in the rest of Europe. But, in our view, German property yields do not reflect the... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus The outlook for office markets in European financial centres Of the four main financial hubs of Europe, we think it is Paris that will deliver the best total returns for offices. An annual average of around minus 10% over the next two years will be better than... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus The correction will be deepest in emerging Europe We have cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the increasingly gloomy outlook for noneuro- zone European economies. Capital values are likely to fall by 40% from peak to trough in most non... 8th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falling currencies add to rental value gloom in emerging Europe As well as facing a deep and painful recession, occupiers in emerging Europe have been hit by falling currencies, increasing the burden of rental payments denominated in euros or dollars. While there... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB moving towards unconventional policies Although the ECB’s 25bp interest rate cut was smaller than expected, the decision appears to have reflected a desire to maintain the corridor between the official rate and deposit rates rather than a... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
