Europe Economic Outlook Industrial slump deepens downturn (Q1 09) The outlook for the European economy has worsened dramatically as the export-dependent industrial sector has slumped in the face of collapsing global demand. Although falling inflation should boost... 21st January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The anatomy of the Great Depression of the 1930s There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and... 19th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB drags its heels While the ECB cut interest rates as expected today, it’s warnings that it will not reduce them again at its next meeting confirm that it will continue to drag its heels compared to other central banks... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices add to the gloom in Spain The latest news from Spain shows that the housing market downturn is gaining momentum as the economy enters recession. Further sharp falls over the coming quarters are inevitable and we expect house... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack GDP to fall by at least 2% this year The latest economic data have been pretty awful. Output in the industrial sector is plummeting in response to weakening global demand. What’s more, there is only limited evidence so far of a boost to... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Industrial slump points to deeper and longer recession Hopes that the euro-zone’s relative lack of indebtedness would allow it to fare comparatively well in the global downturn have been dashed by the slump in the industrial sector and insufficient policy... 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB making slow progress Given the latest sharp fall in inflation and mounting evidence that the euro-zone economy is in the midst of a severe downturn, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by 50bp this month. Indeed, as it... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property: are we underestimating small country risk? Over the next two years, we expect the best performing euro-zone commercial property markets to be Greece, Finland and Portugal. All are forecast to deliver better total returns than core markets such... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB engage in quantitative easing? The latest signal from the US Federal Reserve that it plans to adopt an even more aggressive policy of quantitative easing has fuelled speculation over what other central banks like the ECB might do... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will quantitative easing work? Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to... 17th December 2008 · 1 min read
Western European interest rates and bond yields set to tumble (Q1 2009) Much of Europe faces a year of contracting GDP, falling profits and rising unemployment in 2009 and, perhaps 2010. In the Euro-zone, we expect a widespread contraction in GDP, but, with the exception... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is criticism of the German Government warranted? The German Government has come under attack from the press and other European leaders for its apparent reluctance to provide its ailing economy with a fiscal boost. In fact, it has done more than is... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB already considering zero interest rates After today’s expected 50bp interest rate cut, the bottom end of the Swiss National Bank’s target range for three-month interest rates has already hit zero. For now, the Bank will target a rate of... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how heavily will Europe suffer? Despite the recent weakness in the region, there are still reasons to think that at least some parts of Europe might suffer a shallower and shorter downturn than that underway in the United States... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe to underperform the Euro-zone (Q1 2009) With very few exceptions, total returns in noneuro European commercial property markets are, on average, forecast to be negative in 2009 and 2010, before recovering in 2011 and beyond. (See Charts 1... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Smaller markets to outperform during the correction (Q1 2009) Over the next two years, falling capital values, generated by rising yields mean that total returns are likely to be low or even negative in many Euro-zone property markets with the smaller markets... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
