ECB Watch Rate hike unlikely to be the first of many The recent batch of reasonably encouraging data, coupled with a raft of hawkish comments from various Governing Council members, suggests that the ECB will go ahead with its plan to raise interest... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neck The results of the latest round of Irish bank stress tests will almost undoubtedly make pretty grim reading and we doubt that they will draw a line under the banking crisis. Accordingly, concerns... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s euro-zone inflation figures increased the likelihood that next week’s ECB rate hike will not be a one-off. But the weakness of underlying price pressures in the region suggests that a major... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment provides some tentative signs that the euro-zone recovery may begin to slow before too long, suggesting that an April rate hike by the... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) The latest German CPI inflation numbers are unlikely to provide the ECB with a great deal of comfort. Accordingly, it remains virtually inevitable that the Bank pushes ahead with its April interest... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are default concerns not hitting the euro? Increased concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone countries may default on their debts have so far had remarkably little impact on the value of the euro. But there are reasons why the currency... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Default worries set to deepen Concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone economies will default on their debts have intensified over recent weeks. With the Portuguese situation and uncertainties over the permanent crisis... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental value growth outlook still pretty weak The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s problems worsen The recent surge in government bond yields, coupled with ongoing concerns about the banking sector and prospects for economic growth, suggest that Ireland may need to gain a bigger bail-out package... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bail-out now even more likely The fall of Portugal’s Government makes it even more likely that the country will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting a bail-out. But it may also add to the growing concerns over the prospect of... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s small fall in the euro-zone composite PMI does little to alter the view that the economy made a strong start to 2011 and that the ECB will push ahead with its planned interest rate hike in... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are office rental values more vulnerable in Madrid than Barcelona? Many of the recent occupier market signals suggest that the outlook for Madrid office markets is marginally better than in Barcelona. Yet, if Spain continues to shed jobs this year as we expect, an... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New European bank stress tests still not stressful enough Details on the methodology and assumptions behind this year’s European bank stress tests provide little hope that the results will significantly ease concerns about the region’s banks. This supports... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
