Europe Economics Weekly Wage pressures to remain subdued Last week’s data brought further evidence of persistent weakness in euro-zone labour markets, with employment stagnating in Q2 and annual wage growth slowing. Admittedly, while pay cuts continued in... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cautious SNB won't hike rates for some time yet Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone exports is another sign that GDP growth will weaken in Q3 after Q2’s strong expansion. And with exports set to slow further in the months ahead, a consumer revival would be... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will a lack of supply drive a recovery in European office rental values? A shortage of supply in the Central London office market is likely to drive relatively strong rental growth this year and next. In Europe, however, although office development pipelines have also been... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's unconventional support is still crucial The recent pick-up in ECB bond purchases has been very small when compared to earlier acquisitions or to the size of the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, its lending to commercial banks in the region as... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How reliable is the German ZEW survey? September’s slump in German ZEW investor sentiment was a worrying sign that the recovery is already faltering. Admittedly, it is a less reliable indicator of German GDP than business surveys like the... 15th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Sep.), EZ Ind. Prod'n (Jul.) & Labour Costs (Q2) The drop in German ZEW economic sentiment in September and July’s stagnation in euro-zone industrial production confirm that the euro-zone recovery is slowing again after Q2’s strong expansion. 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further falls in euro-zone industrial rental values are likely The fact that the euro-zone industrial recovery appears to be losing momentum does not bode well for industrial occupier demand or rental values across the region. As such, our forecasts that falls in... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking worries continue to weigh on the periphery The recent slide in the euro and rise in peripheral bond yields appears to reflect renewed concerns about the health of the region’s banks. These concerns may only subside once the peripheral... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2), Italian & French Industrial Production (Jul.) Q2’s Italian GDP figures confirmed that Italy continued to expand at a pretty healthy pace last quarter. But we think that the recovery may already have run its course and that there is a strong... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian political stalemate increases debt concerns Recent developments are not easing the concerns that we have previously raised over Belgium being the Greece of the North. While the Belgian economy is growing healthily, the current political crisis... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's fiscal headwinds gather strength With Greece likely to receive its second tranche of loans from the euro-zone and IMF next week, the Government will be able to meet its financing needs for the next few months. But Q2’s dreadful GDP... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade & Spanish Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The latest German industrial and trade data add to evidence that the recoveries in these sectors are beginning to lose momentum. Nonetheless, Germany looks set to remain the euro-zone’s main engine of... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Interest rate rises unlikely to dampen Swedish property recovery The latest rise in Swedish interest rates may raise concerns that the nascent commercial property market recovery could slow. But that seems unlikely. For one thing, interest rates are still very low... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly IMF too sanguine about the risk of a sovereign default Last week, the IMF published a note outlining why it believes that a government default in the advanced world is “unnecessary, undesirable and unlikely”. While the note makes several valid points, we... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the Spanish retail property market outlook improved? The increase in Spanish household spending in the first half of 2010 suggests that the outlook for Spanish retail property may be improving. However, we remain cautious. Among other things, with one... 3rd September 2010 · 1 min read
