Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Market impact of more defence spending in Europe While the prospect of more defence spending in Europe is pushing up government bond yields there, we still expect Bund yields to fall back. Meanwhile, even if defence stocks in Europe kept outpacing... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2025) February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation. We expect the headline rate to remain above 2% throughout most of this year but services... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Jan. 25) Net lending to property had a steady start to 2025, with the total of £917mn in January down from £1.28bn in December 2024, but close to the average seen over 2024. 3rd March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jan. 2025) The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to change over the next six months with the sharp deterioration in the outlook... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 2.3% m/m, will provide some reassurance that the spike in January was a one-off. And it keeps the door open for the central bank to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Peace talks, gas flows & defence spending President Putin this week described Moscow’s initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope” and, as we explained in an in-depth piece, an end to the war with... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Seven points on the UK-US trade deal The "economic" trade deal that Starmer and Trump talked about at the White House this week may mean the UK avoids any new tariffs on its exports to the US. But since we didn't think such tariffs would... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
