Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) Euro-zone prime property yields fell slightly in Q4, led by offices and industrial. However, a slowdown in rental gains as vacancy climbed higher meant that capital value growth slowed slightly... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2024) The strong 1.7% q/q expansion in the Turkish economy in Q4 appears like a setback to the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation, but we don’t think this data is enough to throw the... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Feb. 2025) Some of the bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices in February (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 0.2% m/m), which followed the muted 0.1% m/m rise in January, may... 28th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Is the EU backsliding on climate policy? The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal and Omnibus packages mark a shift in climate policy as pushback against the costs of climate action grows. With the EU less willing to impose costs on the private sector... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Moving from unanimity to dissent at the ECB The ECB looks very likely to reduce interest rates by 25bp next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but this will probably be the last “no-brainer” cut for some time. We expect the Bank to drop... 27th February 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK inflation risks and reassurances It is very unusual for the Bank of England to be cutting interest rates when inflation is above the 2% target and is expected to rise further. There’s a growing risk, then, that inflation fears will... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional growth may hold up a little better than we had been expecting in Q1. That said, firms... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 (Updated 1st May 2025) · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The acceleration in house price growth in January suggests the housing market has maintained momentum as the wider economy is losing it. What’s more, our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How far UK defence spending will rise and what this means for GDP The Prime Minister’s announcement that defence spending will rise from 2.3% of GDP now to 2.5% by 2027 is likely to be only the start of a more substantial and longer-lasting increase in defence... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How could Europe finance extra defence spending? We think that there is likely to be substantial additional borrowing by European governments in the coming years to fund higher defence spending. This could amount to anything from 0.3% of GDP per... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Industrial’s pandemic-era boom over; steady demand ahead Industrial property has been a clear winner over the past five years, with double-digit annual rental growth far outpacing expectations. However, as we predicted early on, supply has been responsive... 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
