UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Gilt yields should fall back this year, but with property looking somewhat overvalued we doubt that will trigger much in the way of yield compression. That means the recovery in all-property returns... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: New, higher growth forecasts Optimism about the euro-zone economy has risen markedly in recent weeks and we have revised our GDP growth forecasts up. We now think the economy will grow by 0.9% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2025) Although it will have no impact on the fiscal update next week, the significant overshoot in borrowing in February highlights the Chancellor’s tight fiscal backdrop. The Office for Budget... 21st March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turmoil in a few EMs not a sign of widespread risks The financial market sell-offs in Indonesia, Turkey and Colombia this week are, in part, a reflection of concerns about strained balance sheets. We think that vulnerabilities in some frontier markets... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Remote work is here to stay in UK, US and EU Despite numerous reports of firms rowing back on remote work, the evidence in the UK, US and the EU suggests that the share of jobs being done remotely has remained constant over the past couple of... 20th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
