Bonds Update Another fiscal spanner in the works for gilts and sterling We still think gilts will rally over the rest of this year even if fiscal concerns don’t entirely abate, as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to expect. But concerns... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (June) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Headline inflation rose slightly in Switzerland in June, but we expect it will remain around zero, or just below, for the rest of the year. Persistently weak inflation is likely to encourage the SNB... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Unpacking the latest rate moves 31st July 2025, 3:00PM BST How are signs of tariffs-induced inflation shaping Fed deliberations? Are White House attacks a consideration on when to move next on rates?
UK Commercial Property Update Household savings to support UK spending and retail rents Real household disposable income growth is now slowing, but we still expect household consumption will accelerate to around 1.8% y/y on average over 2025-27 as households start to run down the savings... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (July) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back... 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q2 2025) The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as... 2nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update The changing face of the global tourism market Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash HICP (June) The small increase in headline inflation in the euro-zone in June will not change the debate among ECB policymakers about whether there should be one more interest rate cut in the current cycle. This... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2025) The large fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June shows that the housing market is still struggling to recover from the combination of the stamp duty induced lull and the subdued... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2025) Capital inflows into EMs held up well in June despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Were higher US tariffs to come into force after President Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
