Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris? Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we... 4th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year. 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Parliamentary Election The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2024) November’s surprisingly large rise in the Nationwide house price index suggests the housing market is picking up momentum despite recent rises in mortgage rates. With housing affordability still... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
