Europe Economics Update French political turmoil adds to near-term economic risks The latest anti-austerity backlash from within the French Government, together with supportive comments from the ECB, offer hope that the euro-zone’s fiscal straightjacket could be loosened in future... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB finally facing facts President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is recent euro-zone weakness down to the Ukraine crisis? The latest falls in business confidence and the weakness of euro-zone exports seem to relate partly to the effects of the Ukraine crisis and could therefore be fairly short-lived. But there is a risk... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak economic data suggest euro-zone rental upturn not imminent Recent, disappointing euro-zone economic data reaffirm our view that a meaningful, demand-driven commercial property rental upturn is not yet on the horizon. Given a looming floor for yields, this... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian GDP (Q2) Q2’s sharp rise in Norwegian GDP made imminent policy action by the Norges Bank look very unlikely. But we still expect the Bank to cut interest rates next year as the krone strengthens further and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2 14) Q2’s sharp rise in Norwegian GDP made imminent policy action by the Norges Bank look very unlikely. But we still expect the Bank to cut interest rates next year as the krone strengthens further and... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hintedstrongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hinted strongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we hadpreviously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%,by the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental value growth in Barcelona outpace Madrid? To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we had previously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%, by... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has too much faith in long-term inflation expectations The key remaining barrier to bolder ECB policy support seems to be the Governing Council’s viewthat long-term inflation expectations are “well-anchored”. We have doubts over the usefulness ofsuch... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) June’s euro-zone trade data provided yet further evidence that the external sectorremains too weak to make up for the region’s feeble domestic recovery. 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Germany? The decline in German GDP in Q2 is not as alarming as it might appear given that it was causedpartly by temporary factors. But while the economy should return to growth in Q3 and beyond, itseems clear... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
