Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recently published data show that Italy and Spain made little headway in strengthening their fiscal positions in 2013, but Portugal exceeded its targets. More encouragingly, most of the periphery... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Final Manu. PMI (Mar.) February’s euro-zone labour market figures underlined the fact that the economic recovery is still far too weak to make a significant dent in the high level of unemployment across the currency union. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus: one year on Although the Cypriot economy has proven surprisingly resilient over the past year, its future still looks bleak. In common with a number of euro-zone economies, Cyprus is at risk of a prolonged period... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gulf between US & German bond yields looks set to widen The spread between the yields of 10-year US and German government bonds is close to the largest it has been since the start of EMU. But we think the spread will continue to grow. With this in mind, we... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is France resolving its problems? France is beginning to tackle its long-standing economic problems. Although a weak labour market and additional fiscal austerity will weigh on the economy this year, growth should pick up in 2015... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation probably partly reflected temporary factors relating to the timing of Easter. But the weakness of inflation suggests that the ECB may need to take... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Lacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECB Survey data for March provided an insight into how the euro-zone fared over Q1. While they suggested that the recovery probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter, they remain consistent... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the recent outperformance of Frankfurt office rents continue? A broad-based economic recovery combined with a modest development pipeline points to rents in the major German office markets making steady gains over the next few years. Yet the recent pick-up in... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) The rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in March provides another indication that the euro-zone economic recovery has built up a little momentum in the early months of... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s weak euro-zone monetary data will add to pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further in the coming months. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until 2016 Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do capital flows explain the euro's strength? Balance of payments data suggest that capital inflows from abroad may have helped to push up the value of the euro. But if the current account surplus shrinks and the appetite for euro-zone financial... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) March’s German Ifo survey echoed the message from other recent surveys that sentiment towards the economy might be starting to soften a little bit. But the current conditions index still points to... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish central bank unlikely to tolerate further krone falls The fall in the Danish krone to its weakest level against the euro since early 2006 has increased speculation that Denmark’s central bank will have to respond to maintain the krone’s peg. We agree... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro's strength against the US dollar unlikely to last The euro has been on an upward trend against the US dollar for nearly two years, largely reflecting improving sentiment towards the euro-zone economy and reduced fears of break-up. But the relative... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
