Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) March’s euro-zone trade data confirm that the strong level of the euro continues to act as a significant headwind for euro-zone exporters. This will furnish the ECB with yet another reason to take... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Milan office rents poised to recover? In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The disappointingly modest rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 will have done little to reduce the risk of deflation in the region and the stark divergence between the major economies only adds to... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s recovery strengthened in Q1 The preliminary estimates of first quarter GDP for Central and South Eastern Europe provide further evidence of a gradual recovery in the region. The main factor behind the improvement in growth... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that industry has made a weak start to 2014, underscoring the fragility of the recovery both in the sector and in the euro-zone economy as a... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May 14) The fifth consecutive decline in ZEW investor sentiment in May suggests that the German economic recovery might not gain much pace from here. 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should a slowdown in euro-zone production worry logistics investors? Despite the slowdown in industrial production, the outlook for euro-zone logistics property remains positive. In particular, the improved outlook for consumers, as well as the growing penetration of e... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will be the ECB's next move? While President Draghi made clear last week that the ECB will loosen policy in June, he gave very few hints about just what action the Bank will take. Small cuts in the main refinancing and deposit... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and yields mark time in most markets Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates and maybe more next month The ECB signalled very strongly at today’s press conference that policy will be loosened next month. A small cut in the main refinancing rate seems like the least that the Bank could do and is... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Mar.14) March’s industrial production data for key euro-zone countries suggested that the recovery in the sector failed to pick up any momentum and that even Germany experienced a modest slowdown. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank's household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much momentum is there in euro-zone property yields? Absent another shock, over the next few quarters, further falls in the peripheral property yields are likely. However, with deflation lurking in the background and yields already low, core yields are... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
