Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank continued to suggest that interest rate hikes are unlikely until the end of 2014. But we expect the economic recovery to be weaker than the Bank expects, implying that rates could... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail occupier markets strengthening, but values still at risk The main issue with UK regional indicators published in August was the poor economic performance that the Labour Force Survey ascribed to several regions, including London. Our view is that the LFS... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Final PMI (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The breakdown of Q2 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMI brought further confirmation that the euro-zone economy has embarked on a recovery. But growth rates look set to remain... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2 13) Swiss Q2 GDP data revealed that activity continued to pick up pretty strongly. While modest export growth is likely to mean that the recovery is not particularly rapid, a healthy domestic economy... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What would a new government mean for Norway? The Conservative-led opposition is favourite to win the Norwegian election on the 9th September. But the party looks unlikely to tackle the economy’s twin addiction to energy exports and household... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to run Data released last week point to a brightening near-term outlook for euro-zone households, suggesting that consumption growth will gather pace in Q3. But given that a meaningful recovery in the labour... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & CPI (Aug.)/ Unemployment (Jul 13.) August’s EC survey added to evidence of a moderate recovery in the euro-zone, but July’s unemployment figures confirm that this is not yet boosting the labour market. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q2) The Danish economy grew at a decent clip in Q2 on the back of strong export growth, but household deleveraging means that growth over the coming year will fall short of consensus forecasts. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q2 13) The Danish economy grew at a decent clip in Q2 on the back of strong exportg rowth, but household deleveraging means that growth over the coming year will fall short of consensus forecasts. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
