Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The further weakening in the key euro-zone monetary aggregates in June has further strengthened the case for additional policy stimulus from the ECB. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) July’s small rise in the German Ifo added to evidence that the economy is gathering momentum, but the recovery is likely to be relatively modest. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) The rise in the euro-zone PMI in July provides further evidence that the region may be exiting recession. But with credit conditions still tight and fiscal policy set to remain contractionary, a... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are euro-zone retail rental values at a turning point? Agency data show that prime euro-zone retail rental value growth came to an abrupt halt in Q2. With the underlying macroeconomic drivers of retail occupier demand still poor, we think that retail... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the euro led to convergence or divergence? The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices still have much further to fall There is little sign that the Spanish housing downturn will come to an end any time soon. Not only does this spell bad news for households, it will also pile even more pressure on the troubled banks. 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mounting strains on the ESM The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falls in Brussels office yields look unsustainable Preliminary data that show prime office yields in Brussels fell in Q2 are hard to square with the weak picture of underlying occupier demand. Given this, we would not be surprised if the fall in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Forward guidance – the experience of Sweden Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swiss occupier markets: what do the latest macro data tell us? Switzerland’s robust domestic economy is supporting retail occupier demand and rental values. By contrast, falling exports and slowing employment growth mean that the office and industrial occupier... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF downgrade adds to pressure on core countries Fitch’s downgrade of the EFSF has limited implications for the time being. But it will add to pressure on the euro-zone’s core countries who guarantee the various bail-out mechanisms to continue with... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & Euro-zone Trade (May) German investor sentiment weakened in July as disappointing hard data and troubles in Portugal reminded investors that the euro-zone crisis is far from over. And May’s sharp fall in euro-zone exports... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Spanish labour market really on the mend? Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be granted another bail-out? The risk of Portugal needing more financial support is growing. Even if a second bail-out can be agreed in the run-up to the German election, it is likely to involve private sector losses. And the ECB... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
