Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank’s household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s retail sales data suggested that the euro-zone economic recovery may finally be broadening out to include households, while the final PMIs for April pointed to a stronger pace of recovery at... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Beefed-up stress tests will be no quick fix The euro-zone’s upcoming bank stress tests are likely to be more effective than the region’s earlier attempts. But the euro-zone financial system will heal only slowly, remaining a drag on the... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to achieve a 'clean exit' The improvement in investor sentiment towards the euro-zone has allowed even beleaguered Cyprus to tap the markets for funding. But the nation remains a long way from replicating Ireland’s ‘clean exit... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.) & Final Manu. PMI (Apr.) March’s euro-zone unemployment figures maintained the picture of a gradual, but painfully slow, improvement in labour market conditions across the currency union. 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values rise for the third quarter The balance of evidence suggests that conditions in the euro-zone economy improved a little further in Q1. However, convincing evidence that this is now feeding into a clear improvement in occupier... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Dovish tone to hint at action next month We doubt that recent events and data releases have been significant enough to ensure more policy action from the ECB at its May meeting. But developments in the inflation outlook and in money markets... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are inflation expectations still well anchored? Although survey measures of short-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply, medium-term forecasts have so far remained well anchored. However, with deflationary pressures building, a de... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian recovery likely to remain lacklustre Figures released today showed the Belgian recovery gaining a little momentum in the first quarter. But sharp falls in sentiment in March and April suggest that growth may yet slow later this year. 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Slovenia’s political crisis shows flagging reform appetite The prospect of early elections in Slovenia is unlikely to spark significant market pressures. But it highlights how a dysfunctional political system is undermining the country’s economic reform... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s inflation figures might have eased some of the immediate pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support, but they did not alter the big picture of growing deflation... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data underlined the continued weakness of the region’s financial system and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further over the coming... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) The unexpected fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in April might be a warning not to expect too much from the euro-zone recovery and further highlights the risk of deflation in the... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The unhelpful divergence between France and Germany Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone recovery gained more traction at the start of Q2. But there remains a worrying divergence between France and Germany which risks holding back the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
