Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece has continued to make good fiscal progress, but the other southern euro-zone economies are not faring quite as well. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Artificially low Zurich office yields set to rise The low level of prime office yields reported in Zurich could be a sign of strong investor confidence in that city. We suspect, however, that they have been artificially depressed by a small number of... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland won’t unfreeze capital flows anytime soon Five years since they were implemented, Iceland still relies on ‘temporary’ capital controls to support its currency. And they are likely to remain in place for some time yet despite the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Liquidity concerns could soon deepen again The continued falls in commercial banks’ deposits at the ECB are in part a reflection of an improvement in conditions in the banking sector. But further falls could see liquidity falling to levels... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo (May), Consumer Conf. (Jun) & Final GDP (Q1) May’s renewed rise in the German Ifo survey and the increase in the GfK consumer confidence indicator for June added to signs that the economy is recovering. But we expect the recovery to be modest. 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Better out than in The outlook for economic growth in the economies outside the single currency region are typically a little brighter than for those within it. Hence we are a little bit more upbeat about near-term... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property's stronger start to the year will fade The euro-zone recession shows few signs of easing and we have yet to see its full impact on European property values. At the aggregate level, capital values have been supported by further small falls... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s euro-zone PMI survey adds to the recent run of slightly more encouraging news from the region, but there is little sign that the region is about to emerge from recession. 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account data not as encouraging as it seems At face value, the ongoing improvement in the euro-zone’s current account position, which has been to a large part down to developments in the peripheral economies, is a sign that the structural... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the equity rally boost household spending? We doubt that the recent equity market rally, combined with the ongoing downward trend in CPI inflation, will prompt a sustained recovery in euro-zone household spending. Indeed, in the periphery... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French wealth tax adds to fears for economy The news that some wealthy French households were taxed over 100% of their income last year has added to criticism of President François Hollande’s policies. But the bigger point is that rising... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone crisis really over? The improvement in market sentiment towards the euro-zone has not been matched by a material change in the troubled countries’ economic and fiscal outlooks. As such, the crisis is not over. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Record euro-zone recession unlikely to end here The euro-zone’s Q1 GDP release made very grim reading. At least continued economic weakness will keep the pressure on the region’s policymakers to do more. But fiscal leniency has so far been very... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.) While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) The mainland Norwegian economy picked-up strongly in Q1, suggesting that Q4’s slowdown was an outlier. But we still expect the economy to slow later in the year as the euro-zone crisis intensifies and... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
