Europe Economics Weekly Will falling inflation push the ECB into bolder action? The recent run of weak economic data prompted the ECB to cut its policy rate last week. But as inflation itself continues to fall, pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further is likely to... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate cut will be of limited use The ECB’s widely anticipated interest rate cut should provide troubled banks in the region’s periphery with some much-needed support. But it will not be enough to drag the euro-zone out of recession... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Solid but unspectacular start to the year for investment The early signs are that the European commercial property investment market got off to a fairly solid start to the year. Transactions were up in annual terms and in line with a five-year average. But... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures building Deflationary pressures in the euro-zone economy are continuing to intensify. While April’s drop in CPI inflation to just 1.2% was partly down to energy and Easter timing effects, underlying price... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey too optimistic about Spanish investment market The sharp rise in Spanish commercial property investment demand reported in Q1’s RICS Global Commercial Property Survey could reflect anticipation that capital values are now close to a floor. But... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) In 2012, most of the peripheral economies made decent inroads into their budget deficits. But the fiscal consolidation process is far from over. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: New government, same challenges The formation of a grand coalition government in Italy is clearly a step forward, but we doubt that this marks a period of lasting political stability. In addition, despite calls from Prime Minister... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.) April’s EC consumer and business survey supports other evidence that the euro-zone economy could contract again in Q2, marking the region’s longest ever recession. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone? Hopes that euro-zone policymakers are set to sanction a reduction in the pace of fiscal tightening across the region rose further last week after EC President Jose Manuel Barroso suggested that the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have office property values reached a floor in Athens and Dublin? Ireland’s economy is still fragile, but occupier demand is unlikely to drop further. Thus reports of rising office values in Dublin in the first quarter may well prove a turning point. But Greek GDP... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
